The Expanded Child Tax Credit Is Gone. The Battle Over It Remains.
(Updated with more details on the repeal’s impact on the tax code in a few short paragraphs later.)
The repeal of the Child Tax Credit, a major contributor to deficit reduction, now appears to be a done deal. Despite warnings from economists and lawmakers about its loss, House Ways & Means Chairman Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, has indicated that the bill he is circulating to pass a repeal will pass this week.
Here is what is likely to happen:
1. There will be another round of post-vote wrangling. A number of Republican senators are already expressing reservations or concerns about the bill.
2. The repeal will be signed into law by Vice President Pence. The bill will be formally signed by President Trump in time for Thanksgiving, and Pence has promised to sign the bill even if it is passed as amended. The full process will take about five days.
3. After the bill is signed, the House will vote for its amendment. If the House votes against the full Senate bill, the final version of the bill will include a provision to replace the Child Tax Credit with a new “Child and Lifetime Learning Credit,” and make other changes to the tax code. The Senate will then come back and vote to pass the amended bill.
4. The Senate will pass the amended bill, and when it comes back to the House it will be amended by the House as well.
5. The House will pass the bill with the new credit, and when it comes back before the Senate, it will likely be amended, so that the credit is no longer there.
This is not that different from what happened to the credit last December, when the House passed a different bill after the Senate passed a bill containing it.
The full Senate will pass and the House will pass the bill with the new credit. The Senate will hold a procedural vote to end debate on the bill, and the bill will then pass. The House will not approve the bill until Monday, and then it will be sent to the Senate. The Senate will hold a formal vote to approve the bill, and the bill will be sent to the president, who will sign it.
The credit is gone,